Threat Assessment - Destructive Potential/Terrorism

High Impact Terrorism: A7D/CI7D Models

Forecast's Base Date

1-Jul-09

Published 2-Jul-09

Threat Assessment on 2-Jul-09 for 2-Jul-09 - 16-Jul-09

The Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty Increases when the Economic Uncertainty Increases. Time Periods with High Destructive Potential Give Rise to Propitious Opportunities for Terrorism. Actions by Governments and Business Leaders to Reduce Extreme Uncertainty, If Mismanaged, Likely Create Propitious Opportunities for Catastrophic Terrorism. Terrorism Alert Codes RED/GREEN Indicate Advantage/Disadvantage to Attacker.

Charts A1, B1, and C1 Show Historical Data for 2-Jun-09 - 1-Jul-09. Charts A2, B2, and C2 Show Forecasts for 2-Jul-09 - 16-Jul-09 Using the A7D Model. Chart C3 Shows the Confidence Intervals for the Forecasted 7/60-Day Terrorism Alert Index Using the CI7D Model.