Terrorism / Uncertainty - Track-and-Alert Forecast

Conditional Forecasts on 19-May-13

Forecast's Base Date

19-May-13

Published 20-May-13

7/60-DAY TERRORISM ALERT INDEX: TRACK-AND-ALERT FORECAST, 20-MAY-13 - 9-JUN-13

Terrorism Alert Index: 20-May-13 - 9-Jun-13

Historical Data: 15-Oct-12 - 19-May-13. Forecast (RED curve): 20-May-13 - 9-Jun-13. Historical Data Are Rendered in Gray; the 7 Most Recent 21-Day Forecasts Are Color Coded.

SECURITY MATRIX. The Security Matrix includes 7 conditional forecasts. Each forecast has a base date and a 21-day time horizon. The base dates are consecutive 7 days for which MI2 has global mindshare observations. The observed mindshare distribution for any given date quantifies the global “STATE OF MIND” (AWARENESS LEVELS) on that date. Each forecast elicits what would happen to the Economic Uncertainty, the Destructive Potential, the Propitiousness for Terrorism, and the Terrorism Alert Index if the mindshare distribution for the forecast's base date remains unchanged over the 21-day period following the base date.

Economic Uncertainty Index: 20-May-13 - 9-Jun-13

Historical Data: 15-Oct-12 - 19-May-13. Forecast (RED curve): 20-May-13 - 9-Jun-13. Historical Data Are Rendered in Gray; the 7 Most Recent 21-Day Forecasts Are Color Coded.

TU-20-May-13

UWI7>>S-C-F