Destructive Potential/Terrorism

Global Security Alert

24-Feb-10

Published 25-Feb-10

Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic Uncertainty, 1-Dec-09 - 24-Feb-10

Economic Uncertainty Registered an Extreme 96.8% on 24-Feb-10. The Extreme Destructive "Potential" (Thousands of Deaths per Incident) that Is Entailed in this Uncertainty Is 96.7%; The Very High Destructive "Potential" (Hundreds of Deaths per Incident) Is 3.3%.

Propitious Opportunity for Terrorism, by Threat Level, 1-Dec-09 - 24-Feb-10

The concept of "strategic coup-d'oeil" is due to military strategist Baron Antoine Henri de Jomini.

7/60-D Terrorism Alert Index: 1-Dec-09 - 24-Feb-10

EXPLORATORY RESEARCH CLASSIFICATION OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY CODES:
• EXTREME (Code X) means there is potential for thousands of deaths per incident (e.g., attack on World Trade Center)
• SIGNIFICANT (Code S) means there is potential for up to 50 deaths per incident (e.g., suicide car bombing).

Distribution of 1-D Terrorism Alert Codes (Codes GREEN-BLUE=Advantage to Defenders; YELLOW-RED=Advantage to Attackers) (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 24-Feb-10:
• RED, 30.0%
• ORANGE, 13.3%
• YELLOW, 3.3%
• BLUE, 20.0%
• GREEN, 33.3%.
Codes RED, ORANGE, and YELLOW Together Account for 46.7% of the Distribution.

Distribution of ECON Uncertainty Codes (Rolling Cumulative 30-Day Window) on 24-Feb-10:
• EXTREME (Thousands of Deaths Per Incident), 96.7%
• VERY HIGH, 3.3% U124
• HIGH, 0.0%
• SIGNIFICANT (Up to 25 Deaths Per Incident), 0.0%
• UNCLASSIFIED, 0.0%.
EXTREME, VERY HIGH, and HIGH Together Account for 100.0% of the Distribution.

A1-25-Feb-10

M-1399

UTAP>>S-C-T